Tuesday, January 1, 2013

2013 Steelers: Who's In and Who's Out

Happy New Year, PF readers.  I'd like to ring in the new year by continuing MP's discussion of "The 2013 Steelers: The Reconstruction".  Let me weigh in with my two cents worth on who stays, and who goes.

RETURNING FOR 2013:
  1. Keenan Lewis.  Although nickel back Cortez Allen showed us a lot in late December, I still think the Steelers' brass will make every attempt to bring Lewis back.  Considering that he led the NFL in passes defended per game, Lewis will be an extremely attractive figure to both the Steelers and other NFL teams looking for a starting corner.  Should the deal not get done, look for the Steelers to pencil in Allen opposite Ike Taylor and potentially snare a corner in the early rounds of the draft, or possibly a veteran in free agency.
  2. Larry Foote.  The Steelers want to get younger on defense, but Foote can still contribute and isn't looking to leave Pittsburgh for a second time.  I look for Foote to take a considerable pay cut and split time on the field with youngster Sean Spence.
  3. James Harrison.  I'm stuck on the fence with this one.  The Steelers must soon make critical decisions on both Harrison and his primary backup, Jason Worilds.  Clearly, Worilds on his best day will never perform at the level of Harrison in his prime years,...but those prime years are behind us now, and it may be time to jettison the silverback.  I think the team would be selling themselves short if Worilds was not given a full season as a true evaluation period.  Harrison's rebirth in December is probably weighing on the minds of Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert, as they may wonder what one last hurrah with a healthy 92 could mean.
  4. Ramon Foster.  Although starting guard Foster will never be mistaken for Alan Faneca, he did manage to play all of 2012 injury free, a nearly impossible feat for a Steeler offensive lineman.  Considering that converted guard Willie Colon has finished the last three seasons on the IR, I like Foster as a returnee to provide stability to a corps that seems to be forever locked in flux mode.
  5. Casey Hampton, Charlie Batch, Max Starks.  I lumped these three together.  See #2 - Foote, Larry.  These guys have no desire to go elsewhere.  Restructures, less money, etc.  2013 should be the last season for Hampton, with much less playing time as inside guy Steve McClendon is more than capable.  For Starks, you might as well keep riding the pony until it ends up at the glue factory.  One can argue that Mad Max was the most solid lineman in 2012.  For Batch, another season at the league minimum as the #3 won't be hurting anyone.
SO LONG, FAREWELL, SEE YA AT THE REUNION PICNIC:
  1. Rashard Mendenhall.  Is it just me, or does Tomlin waffle back and forth on the value of the marquis runner?  At mid-season after the big victory in NYC, the team seemed content with the tailback by committee idea.  By season's end, as the offense stunk and the team limped to an 8-8 finish, we then heard Tomlin pining for a go-to guy.  Mendenhall was that go-to guy, the franchise runner like Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker before him.  Unlike Bettis and Parker, Mendenhall never truly entrenched himself as that game changer kind of guy.  His off the field tweets, comments, and shenanigans didn't help his cause either.  The Steelers could use a featured back once again, but #34 ain't that guy.
  2. Mike Wallace.  What?  Give up on the fleet of foot, Larry Fitzgerald-East guy?  This entry is the most troubling of all, as Mike Wallace is clearly the best player listed in today's post, but also the most unrealistic in terms of his actual worth.  I've said it ad nauseum, Mike Wallace isn't worth $11 million a season.  In fact, after watching his drops and gaffes during the 2012 campaign, I will now suggest that Wallace isn't worth what he could have signed for last summer.  Setting all this aside, Wallace has blazing, scary, downfield speed, and he will shape any offense that he lines up in. The Steelers know that, and worse, he knows that.  Someone will overpay for Wallace in 2013, but it probably won't be a Rooney.
  3. Byron Leftwich.  Despite his hulking frame, Leftwich has once again displayed an inability to remain healthy when called upon.  The fact that he broke his own ribs falling down, untouched, in the end zone, should sum it all up.  With Big Ben Roethlisberger now north of 30, the Steelers need a 2nd string QB who can make two to four starts a year and keep the team competitive in the process.  Look for the Steelers to snare a former starter in free agency.  Considering that a Ben replacement will most likely be pursued with a high draft pick in the 2016-2018 time frame, I don't think that supplanting Leftwich with a mid or late round rookie makes a lot of sense here.
SYNOPSIS: I only show two starters leaving, but factor in the reduced roles of guys like Foote and Hampton, and I think you'll see that 2013 will be a much different team.  2012 was a season of frustration for Steeler Nation.  With the veteran leadership that was jettisoned a year ago, coupled with the Wallace contract drama, as well as the pre-training camp health status of Mendenhall, Hampton, Harrison, and Brett Keisel, one can make a serious argument that the season was doomed from the get go. In the end, a handful of close games swung the Steelers' season from good to mediocre.  This is not a team in decline, but it will need better performances from it's stars if 2013 is to be any different.  One note of promise: the last three Steeler teams to not make the playoffs were followed by teams that won the AFC North the next year!

5 comments:

mp said...

Another contract I would expect them to consider reworking is Ryan Clark. History shows they like to redo the deals of people they like who are in the last year of their contract. While Clark is 33, he has demonstrated his reliability and value to this team, and safteys can fight father time much better than corners.

Jason Worilds and Ziggy Hood are in the same boat, but restrictions on their free agency make this a little less of an issue.

The other factor is we are currently about $20M over the 2013 cap. Which means some cutting & some juggling must occur before they can do the deals they want to do. Seems for the last few years the Steelers have found themselves pinned against the spending cap, and being forced to do these off season gyrations. ( with the three starting linebackers currently under contract scheduled to hit the cap for $34M, don't be surprised to see one or more of them asked to redo their contracts. As B Watt points out, Harrison's $9M is big, but Woodley at $13M and scheduled to make similar numbers through 2016...just saying...)

a-dawg said...

What I learned this weekend:

1. Cincy is still Cincy
2. ESPN will always love the Packers
3. Ravens got lucky with BA being admitted to the hospital at the 11th hour
4. The 'Hawks are going to be a tough out this year

Things I loved this weekend:

1. Dalton having negative passing yards at halftime
2. Chris Ponder's stock going up, without him even playing
3. Ray-Ray dropping a pick 6
4. BeastMode!
5. The variety of IPAs I drank Saturday night
6. NHL lockout being over!!!

Briwatt said...

I wrote a rather lengthy and well thought reply to MPs commentary, and Blogger just ate it! My thoughts are that the Steelers rarely do a complete retooling season, and this may be the year for it. The reality that team ownership must embrace is that the window of Big Ben being a championship caliber QB is probably down to 4-6 years. It may be wise to abandon the tweaking, tinkering, pruning, and cap dancing philosophies for a year, and maybe rip off the bandaid and turn this roster over. I'd love to think we could have another team capable of a dozen plus wins in 2014,2015, and 2016, but I don't see that happening without some upheaval. As MP said, we don't have that shiny toy right now. No new impact guy.

mp said...

Not sure about a total overhaul, again, i think a lot of the challenge will be cap oriented. Lots of those guys have cap hits even if they are gone....


and to A-dawg's #6....Pens w/ best Vegas odds of hoisting the cup!


Go GUINS!!!!!!

a-dawg said...

Pens seem to be the favorite year-in, year-out with Sid. With him and Geno...if they are healthy, they're a tough out.

Goals won't be a problem this year....They need D help. They have 2 legit high-end NHL D-men...Orps and Letang. I wonder how that will all shake out.

I wonder who will be their "fighter" now that Asham is gone.

Can MAF rebound from his shakey year??? I like that they have a #2 with a better resume.