Besides defending your freedom in my continual involvement with the US Army, I also took a much needed R and R break in Western PA, relaxing and retooling. I will quickly admit that the break was a working vacation, as I communed with numerous black and gold enthusiasts, and discussed the state of affairs with our beloved teams. With that being said, I bet you all expect a big comeback post, focused on the Tomlin era and the resurgence of our Steelers, right? WRONG!!!!! I am going to talk about the Pirates.
Ok, I get it, it's mid September, and the Buccos are in their habitual fifth place position, so it's football season, right? Well, yeah, but I have some new Bucco thoughts, and I need to share them. Consider this my "2007 Year in Review/2008 Year in Preview"
Right now, the Battlins' are 66-81, and I'm guessing, en route to a 74-88 finish. Certainly better than last season, but well off the 84-78 that ESPN projected for them in March. Of course it also equals 15 straight losing seasons, and just one off the MLB record.
With a CEO on board and a new GM on the way, it's safe to say that some additional changes are also forthcoming. I will proffer to you that this team DOESN'T need that much tinkering this winter. Yep, call me the tainted cool aid guy, but I am telling you, stop the nay saying, and listen to me.
With a developing rotation, a nice core of hitters, and an emerging closer, the current team has some significant upsides. This team can finally break the 81 win mark, if not be a legitimate contender in '08, with a few key personnel decisions, and a few winks from Lady Fortune.
So let me start at the beginning, and explain to you what went wrong:
2007 Synopsis
WHAT WENT WRONG:
- Inconsistency in the starting rotation. I'm going to throw this out there...this is the best overall starting pitching that we've had in over 10 years. But sadly, it was terribly inconsistent. Start off with newly acquired Tony Armas, and his dreadful start. Then you had Paul Maholm's shakiness in May and early June, and then Zach Duke becoming the most hospitable pitcher in the majors before the front office finally shut him down. That only leaves us with Gorzo and Snell, and since Snell has been very shaky over the last six weeks, the summation is that Gorzo has been the only consistent pitcher all year.
- Sluggish starts from Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez. Hey Jason Bay fans - here's a news flash, the heart of the order this year has been Sanchez and LaRoche. The problem here is that both of these guys really limped out the gate and were languishing around .200 in early May. These slow starts prevented any form of offensive rhythm in the first third of the season, which when coupled with inconsistent starting pitching, spells losses.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN:
- Get Zach Duke Back. Duke's collapse in 2007 was probably the single biggest factor in our most current debacle. The numbers are truly horrific,and this one speaks loudest: 17 starts, 6 quality starts. Sticking with him as long as we did only worsened things for both Duke and the team. We need Duke to return to his 2006 form. It's probably safe to say that the rookie season was an anomoly, and that Zach will never be that Sandy Koufax, Jr, but he can be a good inning chewer with a low 4's era and a dozen wins or so. Basically a good middle rotation guy.
- Continue the development of some young hitters. Remember when I said Nate McLouth should be delivering pizza? God, did he make me look dumb. Nate's secong half offense has been a key component in the winning record that we've boasted since Aug 1. I really like him as a leadoff or number 2 guy, with true 25/25 type ability. His defensive range doesn't hurt either, in spacious PNC. Steve Pearce and Ryan Doumit are two other guys that I expect a lot out of in 2008. We all saw what Doumit did this year, prior to his injury, and Pearce was clearly promoted to be a starter. I see him as an opening day outfielder in 2008. Nyler Morgan has been a nice addition, showing speed on the bases and in the carvernous center field at PNC. His lack of power will probably relagate him to the 4th outfielder/pinch runner kinda guy, but he should still see plenty of opportunities to contribute.
- Make the Right Moves. Generally speaking, under David Littlefield, the Bucs made only two types of trades: 1) trading a quality starter for a prospect(s) in order to prevent a loss thru free agency. 2) trading a journeyman or prospect for another journeyman or prospect....aka "junk for junk". Now, even the fat girl gets laid, so we had lucked into some steals with this method (Sanchez). My point here is that we have been afraid to think outside the box with a trade. We have been afraid to even remotely consider trading a blue chipper that is under contract, fearing that we just don't get these guys that often. Look at the outfield situation, for example. With Bay, Nady, McLouth, and Pearce, we have 4 guys that should be considered starters. Add in Morgan and Bautista's ability to play in the outfield, and you can say that we have an overage here. Perhaps we should maybe consider trading one of these guys to help bring in another arm. Historically speaking, if the choice came down to Bay or Nady, Littlefield would have moved Nady, a journeyman who is going to bring you journeyman or prospect talent in return. Why not consider trading Bay?
MY RECOMMENDED 2008 TEAM:
- CF McLouth
- 3B Bautista
- 2B Sanchez
- 1B LaRoche
- LF Pearce
- RF Doumit
- C Paulino
- SS Wilson
SP: Gorzo, BLUE CHIPPER ACQUIRED VIA TRADE, Maholm, Duke, Bullington
Bench: Phelps, Nady, Morgan, Izcuris, Bixtler
TRADE THAT I WOULD MAKE: Package Bay and any starter other than Gorzo or Maholm for a bona fide blue chipper. There are teams in both leagues that would give up an all star quality pitcher for a guy like Bay, if we can throw in the arm. Snell gives the most upside, and I truly think that a Bay/Snell package could be very attractive for some teams. This trade might become a necessity if we get find no takers for overpriced Matt Morris.
PLAYES PROBABLY GONE: Armas, Castillo, Morris (hopefully)
No comments:
Post a Comment